New York – With just two days to go until the election, Democrat Andrew Cuomo’s lead over Republican Marc Molinaro was nearly cut in half to 13 points in the race for New York governor, according to a Siena College poll released Sunday morning.
The poll said that Cuomo now leads Molinaro 49-36 percent among likely voters, which is down from 50-28 percent in October.
“Days before voters go to the polls, Molinaro has narrowed Cuomo’s lead. Republicans are ‘coming home’ to support their nominee much stronger than last month, although Cuomo continues to do better with Democrats than Molinaro does with Republicans. Independents have flipped, giving Molinaro a seven-point lead after favoring Cuomo by 10 points last month,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Cuomo’s huge lead in New York City more than cushions his narrow three-point lead in the downstate suburbs, and upstate, where Molinaro leads by 10 points.”
“Women continue to favor Cuomo two-to-one, however men now tilt toward Molinaro after supporting Cuomo by 12 points last month,” Greenberg said. “While Cuomo largely held his base – Democrats, New York City voters, women, black, Jewish, and younger voters – Molinaro picked up with Republican and independent suburban and upstate men.
“Three third-party candidates divide support from seven percent of voters. Last month, before Cynthia Nixon left the race, the third-party candidates attracted 14 percent, with the lion’s share going to Nixon,” Greenberg said.
“For the first time since he’s been governor, more voters now view Cuomo unfavorably, 49 percent, than view him favorably, 45 percent, down from 50-46 percent last month. While Democrats and New York City voters overwhelmingly view him favorably, Republicans, independents and upstate voters overwhelmingly view him unfavorably,” Greenberg said. “ Molinaro continues to be largely unknown to nearly half the electorate, with a 29-25 percent favorability rating, compared to 24-20 percent last month.
“Voters are poised to give Cuomo a third-term. The question appears to be by what margin? Will Democrats and New York City voters turnout in bigger numbers than they have in recent midterms? If so, Cuomo has the chance to run up the score. If not, or if Republican enthusiasm matches increased Democratic enthusiasm – particularly in upstate and the suburbs where there are hotly contested House and State Senate races – then the final results will likely look similar to four years ago,” Greenberg said.