Serological Samples Indicate There Were More Than 200,000 COVID-19 Patients In Israel

TEL AVIV (VINnews) — A representative sample of serological (blood)tests for coronavirus antibodies in Israelis has revealed that between 2-3 percent of the Israeli population contracted the coronavirus, at least 10 times more than the number of confirmed cases.

This would mean that up to 270,000 Israelis were infected with the virus and developed antibodies to it over the past few months. Previously researchers had believed that the 17,000 confirmed cases as of Monday constituted the majority of those infected in Israel.

The survey was conducted for the Pandemic Task Force led by Prof. Daniel Cohen of Tel Aviv University’s School of Public Health, in cooperation with the National Center for Disease Control and the MDA blood service. Researchers gathered some 1700 samples representing a broad spectrum of the population in terms of age, gender and geographic location. Using serological testing kits that have been validated as being 95 percent to 98 percent accurate, the researchers determined that 2 to 3 percent of people had IgG antibodies, the type that appear a week to two weeks after exposure to the virus.

The survey implies that many more people than previously thought had developed the virus without exhibiting any outward symptoms. Conversely, mortality rates which were thought to be higher than 1% may instead be less than 0.01 percent. Despite this,Israel is far from a “herd immunity” situation, in which so much of the population has been infected that the spread of the disease will be slowed or even halted. This requires at least 60 percent of the population to have been infected.

The survey will be followed by a more significant nationwide survey which will include samples from 150,000 to 200,000 Israelis obtained from the various HMOs, as well as a specific survey in Bnei Brak to determine how the virus spreads in densely populated areas.