by Rabbi Yair Hoffman for 5tjt.com
His name is Helmut Norpoth, and he is a professor at StonyBrook Univeristy in Long Island. Norpoth feels that his model of prediction is far more accurate than any polls. He developed a new model of predictions which has been devastatingly accurate since 1912.
Professor Norpoth calls it the “Primary Model.”
So how does it work? It is predicated on how candidates performed in the primary elections and it is based on real voters – not polls. Norpoth feels that primaries are a far better indicator than anything else because it is based on real data not extrapolated data. It is based upon enthusiasm which comes out better in actual performance. It is also based on what people actually do and not what they say they do.
Norpoth’s model predicts that there is a 91% of President Trump thrashing Joe Biden in the upcoming November election.
Norpoth believes that Joe Biden is in a much weaker position than Trump, as Biden had an extremely poor showing in the first two primary races.
Biden actually came in fourth place in Iowa with just 15.8 percent of the vote.
Worse still, he came in fifth place in New Hampshire with just 8.4 percent of the vote.
“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth told Mediaite. “The list is long and discouraging for early front runners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases.”
Norpoth’s data is culled from the actual voting of millions of people – not the thought that they had.
This author would like to suggest that there may be something to what Professor Norpoth says from a thought of Rav Shmuel Brudny zt”l, a former Rosh Yeshiva of the Mir Yeshiva in Brooklyn.
“We see from the Chumash that Kayin was the originator of the idea of bringing a Korban and Hevel copied him – albeit by bringing a much better Korban. Kayin’s was not accepted while that of Hevel’s was. The Midrash further explains that when the two battled together, it was Hevel that originally had Kayin in a headlock, but Kayin told him, “What will our mother feel?” Hevel let him go and Kayin treacherously killed him. We see from here that the emphasis in this world is not Machshavah – but Maaseh. What is counted ultimately is what happens lemaaseh – not the thought behind it.”
The author can be reached at [email protected]